Tun daga rabi na biyu a bara, masana'antar da ta fi guntu ta kasance mai tsauri sosai saboda muni, kuma kowa bashi da ra'ayin hadawa game da lokacin dawo da masana'antu.Kwanan nan, ƙattai da yawa sun nuna halin rashin damuwa ba tare da togiya ba.

Shugaban Kmc Wei Zhejia ya shaida wa masu saka jari a kan cin Kofin Alhamis a ranar Alhamis a ranar 2023 ya fi na uku a baya, kuma yana iya ci gaba a karshe a baya. "matakin lafiya ".

Yayin bayar da wannan gargaɗin, TSMC yana fuskantar haɗarin raguwa na ragi na shekara-shekara tun 2009.

Peter Wennink, shugaban zartarwa na Dutch mai amfani da kayan aiki na DutL, ya ce a cikin wata hira da ta baya: "Muna kallo." Ana wasa da shi a kan babban matakin. "

Kodayake gaba da fata, umarni na kamfanin su a farkon kwata har ma ya zama daga matattarar da ta gabata.Asml ta ba a gan shi a matsayin dutsen-m har zuwa tsakiyar-2024, amma yanzu ya zama yana rauni a karo na biyu na 2024 ba duk da haka ba tukuna, da fatan tsammani (bege) cewaso.

"Ba a taɓa samun ƙarin masana'antu da suka sa semiconductors m semicontuctor da kasuwancin su ba, in ji Ben Baican a cikin dabarun kirkirar ayyukan, in ji shi a cikin wata hira da Times Times.Wannan na nufin masana'antar guntu ita ce mafi m a yau fiye da yadda yake a 2008-2008.Mafi girma a lokacin koma bayan tattalin arziki a shekarar 2009.

"Wasu masu saka hannun jari suna tunanin wannan rauni a saman madawwamin Juya-kiyashi," in ji Amitchandast a Citiangroup."Saboda bayan gida ya karu da yawa, sun damu cewa raguwa na iya zama kamar m. Akwai kadan daga cikin juyayi daga can."

Shin wannan shine "tashar ta biyu" na semiconductor zuwa zagayo?

Hanyar da muka kalli masana'antar semiconductor na dogon lokaci shine kallon abubuwa ta hanyar abubuwan da aka gyara biyu daban-daban a gefe daya da nema a daya.

A cikin ra'ayinmu, a bayyane yake cewa "zagaye na farko" na yanzu na gama gari, kamar yadda masana'antu ke gina iko kamar mahaukaci bayan da covid da samar da rikicin sarkar.Masana'antar da aka gina an gina shi, a fili ba ta daina ba, har sai mun "samar da" wadatar da muke buƙata, kuma yanzu sami tsarin zagayowar na yanzu.

A lokaci guda, gefen buƙatun ya yi laushi, wataƙila tare da damuwa Macroeconognic damuwa, da kuma matsin lamba na ƙasa akan buƙata ya hananne.

A cikin ra'ayinmu, akwai kyakkyawan damar cewa "kashi na biyu" na sake zagayowar guntu na yanzu za a iya fitar da ƙari sosai fiye da na farko rabin shekara.

Wannan na iya zama mafi muni saboda samar da wadatar da ake iya warware su fiye da matsalolin ƙwaƙwalwa tare da Micron da Samsung Juyawa da Kasuwanci don TallafiFarashi.

Matsalar ita ce masana'antar ba zata iya yin kaɗan don ta da bukatar kwakwalwan kwamfuta ba.Rage farashin kwakwalwan kwamfuta ba ya haɓaka buƙata.

Lantarki na ci gaba da raguwa, nan gaba ba a tabbatar ba

Jirgin ruwa na PCs da wayoyin hannu za su yi rauni a cikin 2022 kuma su ci gaba da raguwa a cikin 2023. Kimanin jigilar PC ta shekara ta 20%, bayan raguwar shekaru 28% a cikinKuskuren na huɗu na 2022. A cikin 2022, PC jigilar PC sun sauka 16% daga 2021, mafi girma shekara-shekara ƙasa a tarihin PC.The Outlooks na ragowar 2023 ba shi da kyau, tare da hasashen Gartner a cikin sashen PC a cikin 2023. Kasuwancin PC ya fadi bayan an yi wanka a lokacin da aka kawo shi a lokacin CoVID-19 PANEMMM.Rashin tabbas a cikin tattalin arzikin duniya ya ba da gudummawa ga rauni na yanzu a kasuwar PC.

IDC ta kimanta wani yanki na shekaru 18% a cikin jigilar kayayyaki na Smart na na huɗu na 2022, wanda ke haifar da raguwa na 11% a cikin jigilar kayayyaki na 20% a cikin jirgi a 2022, mafi girma raguwa har abada.Waƙoƙin wayo daga yanki na 7% a 2020 (wanda aka fitar da shi ta hanyar samar da Tallafi na Pandemic na Pand a 2021. Kamar yadda ke tare da PCs, rashin jinar tattalin arziƙi yana tasirin jigilar kayayyaki na yanzu.Abubuwan da aka ƙididdige sun ƙididdigar jigilar kayayyaki waɗanda zasu ragu da shekaru 13% a farkon kwata na 20223. Idc yana tsammanin jigilar kayayyaki don ragi ta 1% a cikin 2023.

Rashin ƙarfi a cikin PCS da wayoyin komai da aka bayyana a cikin Fa'ayoyin samarwa a cikin China.Duk da yake wasu masana'antu sun tsara daga cikin 'yan shekarun nan a cikin' yan shekarun da suka gabata, har yanzu China na samar da samar da kayan aiki (gwargwadon bincike na wayar hannu) da kuma mafi yawan binciken samar da PC.Canjin watanni uku a cikin PCs a China ya zama mara kyau ta Afrilu 2022 a shekara uku da suka gabata zuwa Fabrairu (3/12) kuma ya ragu sama da 20% zuwa ga Fabrairu (3/12) kuma ya ragu fiye da 20% a cikin watanni uku da suka gabata zuwa Fabrairu (galibi wayoyin hannu) suna dakasance korau na bakwai na watanni tara da suka gabata, tare da raguwa sama da 10% a cikin watanni biyu da suka gabata.A cikin Janairu 2023, duk inda aka samu na kasar Sin a cikin kudin gida (Yuan) ya canza ta hanyar 3/12, juya korau, ragin farko tun daga farkon watanni na Pandmic a 2020.


Kasashe masu amfani da su daga sake dakile samarwa daga kasar Sin kuma sun ga jinkirin.Duk Malaysia da Taiwan sun ruwaito karfi da karfi a cikin samar da kayan lantarki na mafi yawan 2022, tare da canje-canje galibi sama da 20% a cikin 3/12 kuma suna kusanci 30% a cikin watanni 30% a cikin watanni 30 a cikin watanni da yawa.A cikin sabbin bayanai, da kashi 3/12 ya fadi kasa da kashi 10% a cikin Janairu don Taiwan da Fabrairu na Malaysia.Canza 3/12 a Q2 2022 ya wuce 20%, amma yaudarar kowane wata tun daga Yuni 2022. Canji na 3223, iri ɗaya ne a watan Sin.Vietnam kuskure ne 5% a cikin Maris 2023.


Yawancin yankuna masu lalacewa sun tsara su ta hanyar jinkirin a cikin PCs da wayoyin komai da wayoyin komai.Amurka, Japan, Ingila, Kasar Ingila, Kashegaban Turai (EU 27) ba su da dogaro kan kayan lantarki.Lantarki a cikin waɗannan ƙasashe masana'antu ne da farko, kayan aikin mota, da kuma tsarin kasuwanci.Koyaya, haɓakawa a yawancin waɗannan ƙasashe suna jinkirin.Canje-canje a cikin samarwa na lantarki a cikin EU 27 3/12 sune galibi tsakanin 10% zuwa 20% na mafi yawan 2023, Canji na 3/12, sauyawa 3/12.3/12 U.S. Rike girma a matsakaici ta hanyar mafi yawan 2022, daga 3% a watan Janairu 2022 zuwa sama da 823, faduwa a kasa 6% a watan Fabrairu.Ya bambanta, samar da lantarki a Japan da Burtaniya zasu ragu don yawancin 2022, 4% a cikin watan Oktoba 2022% a cikin Oktoba 2022 (bayan faduwa 0.7% a cikinJanairu 2023, Burtaniya 3/12 sake sakewa zuwa 0.8% a cikin Fabrairu 2023.

Kamar yadda aka fada a cikin Labarin Invent 2023 na SemicdunColter na Sifafawa, hangen nesa ga semiconducontors a cikin 2023 shine Bleak.Baya ga rauni karshen nasara bukatar a kasuwannin lantarki da yawa, kamfanonin semiconductor da yawa kuma suna fuskantar matsanancin aiki da matsi.Duk da wasu launuka masu haske kamar kayan aiki (Sadarwa a cikin Maris 2023), kasuwar semiconontions ba za su iya murmurewa ba har zuwa ƙarshen PCs da wayoyin hannu da wayoyin hannu sun juya yanayin ƙasa.